NOAA has declared an El Niño for winter 2026/27, and it is forecast to be one of the strongest on record. Here is where it stands and what it has meant for skiers and riders before.
El Niño is a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts the winter storm track over North America. When the equatorial Pacific runs warm, the southern jet stream gets stronger and wetter, and the northern jet often lifts into Canada. That is the whole game for skiers and riders: the storm track moves south. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center measures it with the Niño-3.4 index. Above +0.5°C is El Niño. Above +2.0°C is a very strong event, and this one has a 90 percent chance of getting there.
Every El Niño is different, and one season is a small sample. What follows is not a forecast. It is what strong El Niño winters like 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16 actually did, region by region.
The classic El Niño winners. Strong events have delivered the deepest seasons on record as atmospheric rivers slam the San Gabriels and San Bernardinos.
The southern storm track is built for the Southwest. Strong El Niño winters are the ones locals still talk about.
The San Juans sit right in the favored track. Wolf Creek, already the snowiest place in Colorado, tends to go bigger.
Strong events have a good record here: 1982/83 and 1997/98 were all-timers. Warm storms mean elevation matters, and the upper mountains usually win.
Close to the pivot point between storm tracks. Historically near normal, with the southern ranges better positioned than the northern ones.
Usually milder than normal, but strong El Niños can load the coastal storm track. 2009/10 buried the mid-Atlantic. 2015/16 barely showed up. Watch the thermometer.
The tough one. Strong El Niños typically mean a drier, warmer winter as the northern jet retreats. Chase the cold windows.
Snowfall tends to run below normal from the Coast Range through Montana in strong events. Still skiable winters, just fewer refills.
The numbers on this page come straight from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the U.S. government agency that officially monitors El Niño. CPC issues a full diagnostic discussion the second Thursday of every month and we update this page after each one (next: October 8, 2026). The forecasts on every resort page stay what they always are: NOAA and Environment Canada, shown at mid-mountain elevation, graded publicly on our Accuracy page.
NOAA's official El Niño pageThese are NOAA's official seasonal outlook maps for December through February, the heart of ski season. They show where the odds lean warmer or colder and wetter or drier than normal. They update automatically when CPC issues a new outlook (third Thursday of every month).
For a quick visual read on the El Niño forecast itself, the IRI/CPC probability plume is the chart the pros check: IRI ENSO Quick Look.