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Graded every day

Forecast Accuracy

How close our temperature and snowfall forecasts land at each mountain, checked against real weather stations.

How our accuracy works

We keep score on ourselves, in public, every day.

  1. We save the forecastThe National Weather Service forecast in the US and Environment Canada’s GEM weather model in Canada, logged daily and never edited.
  2. A nearby station measures the daySNOTEL or Environment Canada, within 15 miles and 3,000 feet of the resort. Temperatures are adjusted for the height difference.
  3. We compare the twoWhat was measured vs. the forecast issued the day before, the one you’d have planned with.

🌡️ Temperature

A hit when the high lands within 5°F of the forecast. Lows are graded the same way, separately.

❄️ Snowfall

A hit within 3 inches of what fell (big storms get 25% room). Only real snowstorms count: 3 inches or more forecast or measured, so small and dry days can’t pad the score.

Ranking: by temperature accuracy this month and last. Early in the season most resorts have only a few snowstorms, so snow shows as a count (like 3/4) until there are 8 snowstorms.

Missing your resort? It needs a weather station close enough to be a fair yardstick. Many don’t have one yet.
About this page

Why we grade our own forecasts in public

Every forecast is a guess, and you deserve to know how good ours are. This page keeps score on the two things skiers and riders ask about most: temperature and snowfall. Every graded resort is listed with its record, and you can search for your mountain and tap it for the details.

How the record is built

Every day since June 2026 we have saved the official forecast for a set of resorts across the US and Canada: the National Weather Service forecast for US resorts and Environment Canada’s GEM weather model for Canadian ones. Saved forecasts are never edited. Each day, we collect what nearby weather stations measured: USDA NRCS SNOTEL stations in the US and Environment Canada stations in Canada. A day is graded against the forecast issued the day before. Temperatures are adjusted for the height difference between the station and the resort, at 3.5°F per 1,000 feet. A high or low counts as right within 5°F.

Snow is only graded on real snowstorms, when 3 inches or more was forecast or measured, so small or dry days can’t make the score look better than it is. A snowstorm forecast counts as right within 3 inches, or 25% of the total on big storms. Station depth sensors wobble by about an inch and new snow settles, so a tighter window would mark good forecasts wrong.

Why isn’t my resort graded?

We need a SNOTEL or Environment Canada station within 15 miles of the resort and within 3,000 feet of its elevation. Many resorts, especially in the eastern US, don’t have one. Without a fair yardstick we’d rather not grade at all. We also log a set of resorts rather than every one, so some mountains aren’t on the list.

Why grade against a station and not the resort’s snow report?

A station measures the same way, in the same spot, every day, and it doesn’t depend on when a resort files its report. That makes it a steady yardstick for every day we grade.

Why can a graded day differ from what I saw on the resort page?

Stations report midnight to midnight, so grading uses calendar days. Resort pages split each day into a day half and a night half, from 6am to 6am, so the same storm can be counted a little differently.

What is the skiers and riders number?

Resort pages ask, “Was our forecast accurate?” That yes-or-no vote, one per device per resort per day, is shown in “How our accuracy works” on its own. It isn’t mixed into the station grades.

Guides: How to read a ski snow forecast · What SNOTEL stations are · Snow and weather glossary